One of KAWI's key objectives is to act as an enlightened watchdog in the HIV/AIDS arena. This is carried out in part by an informed critique of disease statistics, both in terms of the data-output and the methodologies employed in data sourcing.

Recently, KAWI questioned the use of ambiguous HIV/AIDS figures by several African leaders and called for greater consideration before using statistical data. (see http://kenyaaidsinstitute. 

In an August 2004 publication by the African Civil Society Governance and AIDS Initiative (GAIN) on HIV/AIDS Democracy and Governance in Africa, it is stated that the recent UNAIDS published statistics on HIV prevalence show that "previous estimates appear to have been too high."

The document goes on:

" There have recently been suggestions that even the lower figure for HIV numbers in Africa is too high, and that the real figure may be as much as 25% lower. Downward revisions in estimated prevalence rates arise chiefly because of the revision of assumptions about the representativeness of data sources used for estimating national prevalence rates. For example, HIV rates in small towns are typically higher than in villages, but data from ante-natal clinics in small towns have often been used as the basis for assessing rates in rural areas, which leads to overestimation. As population-based methods for measuring HIV prevalence are becoming more common, prevalence estimates are usually reduced. However, there are serious methodological difficulties with population surveys, in particular because of the relatively large number of individuals who refuse to provide a sample. Until assessment methodologies are improved, there will remain a high level of uncertainty about prevalence estimates."

GAIN conclude that "it is important to listen carefully to the statisticians, who always insist that it is impossible to know the exact number of people living with HIV and AIDS, and that the best use for surveillance statistics is to identify trends over time rather than ‘correct’ prevalence levels."

This is a claim made time and again by KAWI, but is unfortunately not a cry that is well heard or received by politicians from this or many other parts of the world.

The war on AIDS must not remain a war of rhetoric where HIV prevalence figures are abused and manipulated for political gain. A real solution will only be built upon the solid foundations of truth.